How long will my savings last?
Enter your starting portfolio, monthly spending, expected return and inflation to estimate how many years your retirement savings will last before they run out — or whether they can last indefinitely. Everything runs in your browser; nothing is uploaded.
This is a simplified approximation for planning intuition, not financial advice. It assumes steady returns and level real spending; real markets vary year to year.
Understanding retirement drawdown
"Drawdown" is the phase of retirement when you stop adding to your savings and start spending from them. The central question is whether your portfolio can outlast you. That depends on a tug-of-war between three forces: how much you withdraw each year, how much your remaining balance grows through investment returns, and how fast rising prices push your spending higher. This calculator simulates that tug-of-war month by month and tells you the year your balance would reach zero — or reports that it can last 50 years or more, effectively indefinitely.
The key insight is that a portfolio does not simply deplete on a straight line. Each year your investments earn a return on whatever is left, which partially refills the bucket you are draining. If your return comfortably exceeds your inflation-adjusted withdrawals, the balance can hold steady or even grow — your money is generating enough to cover your spending. If withdrawals outpace growth, the balance declines, slowly at first and then faster as the shrinking portfolio produces less and less return. Inflation is the quiet accelerant: this model raises your spending every year to preserve your purchasing power, so the dollar amount you withdraw keeps climbing.
The 4% rule
The best-known rule of thumb in retirement planning is the "4% rule," which came out of research known as the Trinity Study. The idea is that if you withdraw 4% of your starting portfolio in your first year of retirement, then adjust that amount for inflation each year afterward, a balanced stock-and-bond portfolio has historically had a high chance of lasting at least 30 years. On a $1,000,000 portfolio, 4% is $40,000 per year, or about $3,333 per month.
The 4% rule is a helpful starting point, not a guarantee. It was based on historical US market returns over 30-year windows and does not promise your money will never run out — especially through a long retirement, a period of poor early returns, or higher-than-average inflation. Some planners now prefer a more conservative 3.5%, while flexible spenders who cut back in down markets can often sustain more. Use the calculator above to see how your own withdrawal rate compares and how sensitive the outcome is to each assumption.
Ways to make your money last longer
- Lower your withdrawal rate. Even a small reduction in spending dramatically extends how long a portfolio lasts.
- Stay invested for growth. An all-cash portfolio loses to inflation; a diversified mix keeps compounding while you draw down.
- Be flexible. Trimming spending in years the market falls is one of the most powerful protections against running out.
- Delay Social Security. Guaranteed inflation-adjusted income reduces how much you need to pull from the portfolio.
Frequently asked questions
What return should I use in retirement?
Retirees often hold a more conservative mix than during their working years, so a real (after-inflation) return of 3–5% is a common assumption. If you enter a nominal return, also enter an inflation rate so the model raises your spending accordingly.
Does this account for Social Security or a pension?
No — this simplified tool models a single portfolio being drawn down. Guaranteed income like Social Security effectively lowers the spending you need from savings. Planomy's full app models these income streams alongside your investments.
What about sequence-of-returns risk?
This calculator assumes a steady average return. In reality, a run of poor returns early in retirement can permanently damage a portfolio even if the long-run average is fine. Planomy's Monte Carlo simulation stress-tests thousands of return sequences to capture that risk.
Are taxes included?
No. Withdrawals from tax-deferred accounts are taxable income, which means you may need to withdraw more than you spend. Planomy models account types and taxes to estimate the gross withdrawals you'll need — see the withdrawal-order calculator.
Want the full picture?
Planomy projects your entire plan — taxes, retirement accounts, Monte Carlo, and plan-vs-actual tracking — not just one number. It's free, private, and runs right in your browser.